China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence

Global Interdependence and Biosocial Systems

Igniting and Sustaining Global Recovery: Key Macroeconomic Management Challenges

 A global economic recovery is expected to be ignited in 2010 but this will be characterized by very different growth trajectories among advanced and emerging economies. The downside risks are formidable. Sustaining this recovery will require skillful macroeconomic management. Exit strategies for fiscal stimulus will need to be carefully timed and credible fiscal consolidation plans nee...

Global Macroeconomic Developments and Poverty

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Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty

We measure global real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty and analyze its impact on individual countries’ macroeconomic performance. Global uncertainty is measured through the conditional variances of global factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of global uncertainty is measured by including the conditional varia...

Intermediate Goods Trade and Macroeconomic Volatility: The Case of Iran-China Trade Relations

This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade on production, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China. This analysis has been done by modeling, solving and calibrating an international real business cycles (IRBC) model in period 1980-2009. The results show that when elasticity of subst...